What we do

We train and support organisational, educational and community leaders in the Sustainable Future Planning & Design (SFP&D) development program, which enables people from all walks of life to collectively produce action plans that they own in order to mitigate and adapt to the worsening effects of climate change.

The SFP&D program has been translated from a socio-ecological body of knowledge known as Open Systems Theory (OST). We also train people in advanced OST methodologies, which enable organisations and communities to remain viable in rapidly changing, unpredictable environments. Both OST and its translated methodologies are explained in the SERVICES & PROGRAMS section of this website. 

The following pages explain the rationale for the SFP&D development program, the socio-ecological theory that underpins it, and what participants learn from attending our SFP&D training programs.

Climate Science

Over the last several decades Southern Australia has experienced significant decrease in rainfall, prolonged and severe drought, extreme heatwaves, catastrophic fires, and damaging flash floods and hail.

The 2010 ‘State of Climate’ report (http://www.csiro.au/files/files/pvfo.pdf) from the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology provides a snapshot of the factors affecting climate change across the Australian continent.

And while Australia is already experiencing one extreme of climate change, the January 2010 record snow storms across the Northern hemisphere show that nobody is immune from increasingly unpredictable, frequent and intense weather events. 

Why are we experiencing these extreme weather events?

Climate scientists (Climatologists) are able to show that for all of human history until about 1800, our atmosphere contained approximately 280 parts per million of carbon dioxide. This concentration of 280 ppm CO2 is a safe level for life on Earth. Along with other greenhouse gases, the CO2 traps enough heat in our atmosphere to sustain all species and the human race.

But since the start of the industrial revolution around 200 years ago humans have been burning in a relatively very short period extraordinary amounts of fossil fuel (coal, oil and gas) for energy, transport and the production of goods. In the last few decades this has accelerated to the point that we are now increasing the concentration of CO2 by 2 ppm every year. 2010 will see us pass 390 ppm.

This increase may not sound like much; however, in recent years Climatologists have discovered that it is equivalent to a 10,000 times more powerful impact than what occurs naturally on changing the Planet’s energy balance, which alters global temperature. They have also discovered that the Earth’s atmosphere is very sensitive to small changes in the concentration of CO2. Too low and the entire planet freezes, while too high causes a runaway greenhouse effect.

The world’s leading climate scientist, Dr James Hansen, states in his book, 'Storms of my Grandchildren' that we now have clear evidence that Planet Earth is in imminent peril. He says the continued exploitation of all fossil fuels threatens the continuation of the human race – and the timetable is shorter than we thought.

Quantitative analysis by Hansen and his colleagues identified that in prehistoric times, (some 34 million years ago), when the Antarctic was transitioning from no large ice sheets to a glaciated Antarctica, the concentration of CO2 was only 450 ± 100 ppm!

This finding has profound implications for what constitutes a dangerous level of atmospheric CO2. It implies that anything above 350 ppm of CO2 is a danger zone for life on Earth, and the longer we remain above 350 ppm and move towards 450 ppm, the more we will see devastating and irreversible effects of climate change.     

Hansen’s analysis of the Earth’s climate history confirms that if we continue with business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions, without any doubt, we will commit the planet to global warming of a magnitude that will lead to an ice-free planet. And an ice-free planet would have sea levels 75 metres higher than today!

At our current CO2 concentration of 390 ppm the effects of global warming are already apparent, including melting of mountain glaciers, expansion of dry sub-tropical regions, more intense forest fires, and competition for diminishing fresh water supplies.

Of most concern, continued emissions growth will create the conditions for amplifying feedbacks to drive the climate towards tipping points, beyond which climate dynamics can cause rapid changes out of humanity's control.

Already there are signs that global warming is producing amplifying feedbacks. Methane, a much more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2, is being released from high-latitude tundra and from large reservoirs on continental shelves. And it looks like the disintegration of ice sheets has begun. Greenland and West Antarctica ice sheets mass loss is approaching a rate of 200 cubic kilometres per year.

The air is also holding more water vapour than it did a few years ago. Storms that derive their energy from water vapour – thunderstorms, tornadoes, and tropical storms – are therefore becoming stronger and associated winds and floods are becoming more extreme; a fact not lost in the insurance industry and emergency service organisations.

James Hansen and other climatologists are now certain the world is getting warmer, and will continue to do so over the next few decades. They know that continued growth of greenhouse gases in the near term will make it practically inevitable that global chaos will ensue from the combination of more violent storms and rising sea levels.

You can learn more about climate science by visiting the the websites and reading the books by James Hansen and that of other renowned climate scientists in the REFERENCES & PUBLICATIONS section.  

Beliefs and actions about climate change

Despite the compelling evidence that our planet is in imminent danger of crashing there is not widespread alarm amongst the general population about tackling this terrible predicament. It’s business-as-usual for many.

Why is there a gap between what our eyes and science are telling us and taking action on climate change? What will drive people from all walks of life to collectively take action on climate change now?

To try to find the answer to these and other questions, in 2009 Professor Merrelyn Emery initiated a climate change segmentation pilot study on the Beliefs and Actions about Climate Change (Download) . We also conducted action research workshops in Australia and Canada.

Our research discovered that:

• To effectively transform climate change belief systems and to start getting widespread action on climate change people need to be able to develop their own sustainable futures. (This statement contravenes a popular strategy of providing information to increase belief. The problem with this approach is that information does not change beliefs or behaviour. If it did, we would all be slim and healthy and there would be no behaviour such as drink driving or domestic violence. Information theory is a theory failed.)
• For people to be motivated to fight climate change they must believe that the phenomenon is real. (The climate change segmentation study highlighted that there is still a significant number of people not convinced of anthropogenic climate change. The ratio of ‘believers’ to ‘don’t-knows’ and ‘sceptics or deniers’ is 56% to 27% to 18%. These polarised beliefs and changing community values and expectations about addressing climate change is also being played out at the national Political level, culminating in the voting down in the Senate of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. This discontinuous change is creating much uncertainty for business and communities.)
• People must be able to conceive of a world in at least 20 years time (In a June 2009 Canadian workshop participants could not envisage a future more than about 10 years away. This capacity has gradually been lost over the last 40 years. This loss creates real problems for educators and policy makers who are working and planning for 20-30 year time horizons. People cannot be expected to be motivated to take action against something which is literally ‘out of their minds’ in terms of time and is also likely to be on a scale of devastation which they also cannot currently conceive. Such a situation amounts to a fertile breeding ground for those who have a vested interest in denying climate change and in particular, its origins in green house gas emissions such as CO2 and methane.)  
• People are observing what is happening in the physical environment around them and know something must and can be done to address it (Despite the ongoing debate about climate change, most people continue to see changes happening around them – they know something can and must be done. And while a number of organisations and communities have put in place plans to reverse the effects of climate change; some groups are using methods that do not generate enthusiasm or commitment, while others do not know what to do.)

Because of our concern about extremely damaging climate change and the outcomes of this initial segmentation study and action research, we decided to develop and launch the ‘Sustainable Future Planning & Design’ program in late 2009.

SFP&D development program was created by leading social systems scientists to give business, educational and community leaders a practical set of tools that will enable them to:

Ø  understand how people recognise the signs of climate change and develop sustainable future plans

Ø  produce effective plans that strengthen the resilience of organisations and communities  

Ø  produce the conditions that enable people to work together with shared responsibility and high levels of energy and creativity

Ø  develop and implement sustainable future plans that help meet business goals and community expectations

The SFP&D development program is designed to not only deal with climate change, but to also create a culture of genuine collaboration within an organisation or community.  It enables people to share their perceptions about climate change and develop sustainable future plans that they collectively own.

Open Systems Theory 

People, their Organisations and Communities are defined as ‘Open Systems’ because they are ‘open’ to their external environments. An ‘Open System’, will through its actions, influence and change its environments over time, while at the same time being influenced by external changes in the environment.

To ensure viability an ‘Open System’ must have an open and actively adaptive relationship with its environments. In other words, a healthy ‘Open System’ has a direct correlation over time with the external environment.

This understanding has led to the development of Open Systems Theory, which is a socio-ecological (people-in-system-in-environment) body of knowledge that is being utilised by many successful organisations, including corporate giants such as Microsoft and Hewlett Packard.

SFP&D program courses, which are designed to enable organisations and communities adapt to climate change and mitigate its effects, are underpinned by Open Systems Theory. Participants learn how to collect changes in the planet data and analyse and synthesize it for sustainable future planning by examining the Open Systems Theory building blocks and relationships depicted in the OST diagram for Climate Change.

This diagram shows the relationship between people, organisations, and communities as open systems in context with the 'living planet' environment.

Course participants thoroughly analyse this environment. It is critical part of the planning process because it enables participants to understand how people recognise the signs of climate change and how to use these signs for sustainable future planning.

The goal is to learn how to work collectively to reduce the probability of damaging climate change and also to strengthen their organisations and communities and make them more resilient.

For further information about OST and its translated methodologies go to the SERVICES & PROGRAMS section of this website.